The Life Ledger

Fitness is a way of life.

All this news about alli and I’m wondering, how many people are actually considering taking this new drug? If you don’t mind, take a second and vote here, and pass this around to your friends and myspace buds.

If you’re viewing this in a feed reader, you may have to read this post to see the poll.

Have comments about alli? I’d love to see them - you can leave us comments below.

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What do you think about alli? Take my poll.

I’ve been thinking a lot about GSK’s orlistat/alli since the FDA released their approval last week, and I believe alli is only half of GSK’s plan for orlistat.  The other half?  Multi-vitamins.

I’ve talked a little about alli in general; I even did some math to figure out exactly how many calories alli will block - around 180 calories per day based on a 2300 cal/day diet and following GSK’s recommended maximum fat consumption.  If someone can simply drink one less Mountain Dew a day and get the same benefits as taking alli without all the nasty side effects, why is GSK spending the money to bring alli to the market?

Alli will be marketed as a weight-loss pill lifestyle-change pill.  Broadcast advertisements for OTC drugs are regulated by the Federal Trade Commission, as opposed to ads for prescription drugs, which are regulated by the FDA.  Under the Federal Trade Commission Act:

• advertising must be truthful and non-deceptive;
• advertisers must have evidence to back up their claims; and
• advertisements cannot be unfair.

Because the FTC carries a less-onerous test for drug advertising, GSK will be able to make much craftier claims about the drug and have much more leeway than Roche had with Xenical.  Specifically, there is no requirement for listing side effects, limitations in use and a balance between effectiveness/advertising and indications/side effects.  Likely, we will soon begin seeing commercials that focus on losing 8lbs for every 5 you would normally lose.  If they’re crafty enough, they’ll even create an emotion-based illusion that the alli pill inspires the lifestyle changes suggested by the myalli.com program without the hard work associated with making lifestyle changes.  Effectively, they will market a lifestyle-change pill.  Never mind the skidmarks.

GSK sells multivitamins.  Since alli blocks fat, it will also block the body’s ingestion of fat-soluble vitamins, like A, D, E and K.  If I were a marketing consultant at GSK (and surely they’ve already thought of this), I’d be putting this fact in all alli literature as a preemptive disclosure and use it to my advantage by selling multivitamins either stocked next to alli on the shelves or even boxed with alli as a “kit.”  GSK already sells multivitamins in the US - Geritol already has A, D, E and K in the formula.

So, let’s do a little more math.  We’ll take that unscientific MSNBC poll I mentioned before - 59% of 137,301 respondents are in favor of taking alli.  Walgreens sells Geritol Complete for $5.00 per 40 pills.  If just the 81,008 respondents polling favorably take alli along with Geritol Complete, that’s an additional $405,040.00 per month for GSK - and that’s just based on 137,301 respondents.  I’m betting it won’t be long after alli’s release that GSK releases a specially-formulated multivitamin containing just the fat-soluble vitamins (and omega-3 for buzzword recognition), and I guarantee their profit margin will be higher on that pill.  Using organic growth methods, GSK will double their consumer base using a complementary pill they already manufacture - no R&D cost, very little marketing cost, very high profit margin.

All in the name of Americans refusing to eat one less hotdog a day.

What do you think about alli? Take my poll.

Dr. Sanjay Gupta has written a short article over at CNN about Orlistat / OTC alli.  Among the more poignant (and sure to be lost once the advertising starts airing during Wheel of Fortune) points in his laundry-list of “things you should keep in mind before considering this drug:”

1) Diet and exercise are still going to be your longest-lasting weight-loss solution.

2) The manufacturers of alli and the FDA emphasize that this medication cannot work alone. It must be combined with low-fat diet and multivitamin taken at bedtime.

5) This is not a miracle drug. You will still have to work for the weight loss.

10) And the big question: How much will you lose? Expect modest weight loss. If you lose 5 pounds through diet and exercise, the FDA says you can expect to lose 2 to 3 more pounds by taking this pill. By the way, the weight loss plateaus after six months.

4 out of 10 items echo the sentiments I’ve previously discussed and are growing in the blogosphere - the drug provides minimal weight-loss assistance and is not intended as a weight-loss pill.  That won’t stop GSK from skirting penalties from the FTC when advertising it as a weight-loss pill, and it won’t stop people from buying it in droves.

In fact, I suspect most people trying this drug will be those needing to drop 10-40 lbs before the wedding/birthday/cruise/date, who would otherwise turn to dietary supplements, who have no intention of implementing the lifestyle changes recommended by GSK, and look at the weight-loss as a short-term cosmetic refresher. 

According to a MSNBC Live Vote (not scientific, of course), Americans are pretty excited about putting skidmarks in their undies - currently 59% of 137301 respondents are in favor of taking OTC alli, 15% are against and 25% are unsure.  Personally, I’m still skeptical - messing with my body’s natural internal plumbing by ingesting God knows what just isn’t worth the extra couple of pounds.